Here’s your wrap for Mon, Oct 6 – Fri, Oct 10, 2025 (rounded to the dollar).

Weekly Market Summary:

Stocks fell for the week after a sharp Friday sell-off sparked by new U.S. tariff threats on China over rare-earths, with the S&P 500 down 2.7% on the day—its worst since April. The Dow −1.9% and Nasdaq −3.6% also slumped Friday as semiconductors led declines and volatility spiked. Earlier in the week, indexes hovered near highs before the trade headlines hit; by Friday’s close, weekly losses tallied S&P −2.4%, Dow −2.7%, Nasdaq −2.5%. Bond yields fell as investors rotated to safety, while oil slid and gold firmed, reflecting a classic risk-off session. A partial federal data blackout from the ongoing government shutdown kept traders leaning on Fed speak and earnings previews for direction.

Five Stocks Worth Watching:

• Nvidia (NVDA): High-beta AI bellwether hit hard in the tariff-risk tech selloff; Philly Semi Index fell >6%. Reuters
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Dropped alongside chips on China trade headlines—key read-through for AI/server demand. Reuters
• Tesla (TSLA): Slid >2% with other megacaps exposed to China demand/supply chains. Reuters
• Qualcomm (QCOM): Under pressure amid reports of a Chinese antitrust probe; handset/China sensitivity in focus. Reuters
• MP Materials (MP): Rare-earths producer popped as U.S.–China minerals tensions escalated. New York Post

What The Prediction Markets Says (As Of October 10, 2025):

• Polymarket — October FOMC cut size: Dashboard shows the 25 bps cut outcome as the clear favorite into Oct 29.
• Kalshi — “Number of Fed cuts in 2025”: Contracts lean to 3 cuts as the modal path, with 2 cuts not far behind.
• PredictIt — 2026 U.S. House control: Ongoing, liquid market tracking which party wins the House in 2026.
• Smarkets — 2028 U.S. Presidential winner: Exchange board currently lists JD Vance ~27% as the leading single-name favorite.
• Manifold — 2025 U.S. government shutdown duration/occurrence: Active markets on whether a shutdown happens and for >5 days.

Please note that stock market investments carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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