Here’s your wrap for Mon, Sep 15 – Fri, Sep 19, 2025 (all values rounded to the dollar).

Weekly Market Summary:

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, helping propel the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq to record closes on both Thursday and Friday. A stunning 22.8% surge in Intel—after news that Nvidia took a $5B stake—ignited chips and lifted broader risk appetite. Friday’s trade also featured triple-witching and a pop in FedEx on an earnings beat, while small caps briefly tagged a record before fading. For the week, the S&P +1.2%, Dow +1%, and Nasdaq +2.2%, capping a three-week uptrend. Net-net: breadth improved into the cut, AI/semis reasserted leadership, and sentiment stayed constructive despite seasonal September chop.

Five Stocks Worth Watching:

• Intel (INTC) — Exploded +22.8% on Nvidia’s disclosed $5B stake, its biggest one-day jump since 1987.
• Nvidia (NVDA) — Rose ~3.5% alongside the Intel news; remains the market’s AI bellwether.
• FedEx (FDX) — Advanced on an earnings beat and cost discipline; a useful macro read on parcel demand.
• Apple (AAPL) — Gained after a JPM price-target hike; still a mega-cap sentiment driver.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) — Jumped on a cluster of broker upgrades, keeping cybersecurity momentum intact.

What The Prediction Markets Says (As Of September 19, 2025):

• Polymarket — “Fed decision in September”: Flagship contract (very high volume) that just resolved to a 25 bp cut; traders now eye the next meeting on the Fed dashboard.
• Kalshi — “Number of Fed cuts in 2025”: Post-cut distribution leans to 3 cuts by year-end, with 2 cuts the next most popular path.
• PredictIt — “Which party wins the U.S. House in 2026?”: Ongoing order-book market for control of the chamber.
• Smarkets — “2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner”: Liquid long-dated market (exchange pricing) that currently lists JD Vance as a narrow favorite among individual names.
• Manifold — “Fed decisions in 2025 (sequence)”: Community forecasting on the Cut/Pause/Cut sequencing across the Sep/Oct/Dec meetings.

Please note that stock market investments carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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