Here’s your wrap for Mon, Sep 8 – Fri, Sep 12, 2025 (markets were open Monday).

Weekly Market Summary:

Stocks hovered near records and extended weekly gains as traders leaned into expectations for a Fed rate cut next week, even after August CPI ran a bit hot. Thursday saw fresh all-time highs across the major averages, with the Dow topping 46,000 for the first time before a mixed, quieter finish on Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 +1.6%, Dow +1%, and Nasdaq +2%, underscoring ongoing leadership from growth/AI-linked names. Tech strength was fueled by upbeat Oracle commentary and a bid in semis, while cyclicals and health care were choppier. Macro tone stayed “risk-on” despite softer consumer sentiment and lingering tariff worries, as markets looked through to policy support.

Five Stocks Worth Watching:

• Tesla (TSLA): Helped propel the Nasdaq to record territory late week; a bellwether for high-beta risk.
• Micron (MU): Rallied on upbeat analyst calls and AI demand momentum.
• Oracle (ORCL): Strong AI-driven outlook buoyed software and chips; a key sentiment lever for the AI trade.
• UnitedHealth (UNH): Reaffirmed 2025 outlook; managed care remains a swing factor for the Dow.
• RH (RH): Slid on weaker results and a guidance cut tied to tariff headwinds—headline-sensitive name to watch.

What The Prediction Markets Says (As Of September 5, 2025):

• Polymarket — “Fed decision in September”: Markets are heavily pricing a 25 bps cut; recent round-ups peg the “cut” outcome in the high-80% range, matching the platform’s active contract for the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting.
• Kalshi — “How many Fed cuts in 2025?”: The distribution currently leans to 2 cuts (~42%) with 3 cuts close behind (~38%), reflecting uncertainty on how quickly the easing cycle proceeds.
• PredictIt — “Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026?”: As of now the market favors Democrats (~66¢) over Republicans (~34¢) to control the chamber after the midterms.
• Smarkets — “2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner”: JD Vance ~27% is the current single-name favorite on the exchange’s main 2028 market, with others (e.g., Gavin Newsom ~16%) trailing.
• Manifold — “Will the Fed cut rates in September 2025?”: Community forecasting has this at ~97% Yes, in line with broader rate-cut expectations.

Please note that stock market investments carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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