Here’s your wrap for Mon, Sep 29 – Fri, Oct 3, 2025 (rounded to the dollar).

Weekly Market Summary:

Markets pushed to fresh record highs into Thursday and finished the week higher after a strong Friday rally, even as the U.S. government shutdown delayed major data releases like nonfarm payrolls. The Dow jumped on Friday—helped by health care and industrials—while the S&P 500 notched an intraday record on rate-cut hopes. With official data paused, traders leaned on alternative labor indicators and brokerage calls that lifted odds of an October Fed cut, keeping risk appetite firm. Tech leadership was mixed: some AI names cooled, but overall the S&P and Nasdaq set record closes on Thu 10/2 before easing a touch Friday. Breadth improved on the week, aided by health care and selected cyclicals, while shutdown headlines and data gaps kept intraday swings elevated.

Five Stocks Worth Watching:

• Western Digital (WDC): One of the week’s top S&P 500 movers on storage-demand optimism and a bullish analyst call.
• Coinbase (COIN): Rallied alongside crypto (BTC > $120k), a handy sentiment gauge for risk-on appetite.
• Fair Isaac (FICO): Jumped on product/strategy news; credit-tech momentum name with outsized index impact for software.
• UnitedHealth (UNH): A major Dow gainer Friday; health-care strength helped the index’s late-week surge.
• Caterpillar (CAT): Also boosted the Dow on Friday—watch as a proxy for industrial demand and capex cycles.

What The Prediction Markets Says (As Of September 19, 2025):

• Polymarket — October FOMC: Contracts imply ~90%+ odds of a 25 bps cut at the Oct 29 meeting (dashboard + event pages).
• Kalshi — “Number of 2025 cuts”: The modal path now leans to 3 cuts with 2 cuts next, reflecting elevated odds of an October move plus December.
• PredictIt — 2026 U.S. House control: Ongoing market tracking party control of the House after the midterms (useful macro barometer for policy risk).
• Smarkets — 2028 U.S. Presidential winner: Exchange pricing currently shows JD Vance ~27% as the leading single-name favorite.
• Manifold — 2025 U.S. government shutdown: Multiple active markets tracking existence/length of this year’s shutdown; odds have risen with the current stoppage.

Please note that stock market investments carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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